Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:31:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

DB 0xdbe0…00ab other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)

Total PnL +$665 (+11%) realized +$665 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip

Net edge+19%after slip

Net WR70%break-even

Win rate90%9W / 1L

Drawdown1%max

Avg bet$586per market

Trades / day2.0pace

Kalshi-fit10%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +70%

net ROI/market (all)+23.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+51.9%	+37.4%	100%	78%	+53.3%
≤30d	10	+36.7%	+23.7%	90%	70%	+52.2%
≤90d	10	+36.7%	+23.7%	90%	70%	+52.2%
all	10	+36.7%	+23.7%	90%	70%	+52.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+23.7%	70%	+52.2%
10%	+11.8%	40%	+37.6%
15%	+1.0%	10%	+24.3%
20%	-8.9%	10%	+12.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 81% · top 2 86% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +68% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

22% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +37% · $-wt +68% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$449 vs −$43 · ×10.53 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×94.79 per $1 lost it wins $94.79

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$665

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)90%

Wins / losses9 / 1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)10 / 10

History coverage8d

Avg bet$586

Trades / day2.0

Drawdown1%

Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 10 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$1,010	+$3,278	+324%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$933	+$79	+8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 28	$873	+$63	+7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$762	+$111	+14%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$875	+$198	+23%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$426	+$138	+32%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$385	+$42	+11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$295	+$90	+31%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$255	+$40	+16%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$44	−$43	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	100¢	$4,288	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	23¢	$1,010	2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	46¢	$1,012	2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	41¢	$933	3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	SELL Yes	100¢	$936	23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	93¢	$873	23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	87¢	$762	45h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	100¢	$762	45h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	40¢	$310	45h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	46¢	$311	45h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	82¢	$564	46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	75¢	$426	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	90¢	$385	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	76¢	$295	5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$255	6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	3¢	$44	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records