Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:22:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbde…4624 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$143 (-8%) realized −$226 · open +$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$107
sports 36% −$35
crypto 2% −$34
politics 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -13.3% -21.5% 58% 47% -23.2%
≤30d 19 -13.3% -21.5% 58% 47% -23.2%
≤90d 19 -13.3% -21.5% 58% 47% -23.2%
all 19 -13.3% -21.5% 58% 47% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 47% -23.2%
10% -29.0% 26% -30.5%
15% -35.9% 21% -37.2%
20% -42.2% 5% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$55 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$248
Realized−$226
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage6d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 90¢ $197 $248 +$51 (+26%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Over 60¢ 0¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $108 $0 −$108 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $66 +$24 +36%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $64 −$63 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $99 +$10 +10%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $54 +$10 +18%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $98 +$56 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $72 +$29 +40%
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $101 −$6 -6%
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $101 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $101 −$29 -29%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $110 −$108 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $75 +$31 +42%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $101 +$17 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $14 +$2 +16%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $12 +$2 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $199 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $64 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $66 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $35 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $99 8h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 84¢ $54 9h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $100 20h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $98 26h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $98 26h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $95 28h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $101 28h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $72 28h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 44¢ $72 28h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $110 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 40h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 40h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $101 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 69¢ $118 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $75 4d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 4d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 4d
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 86¢ $14 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 93¢ $14 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 81¢ $12 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.22 · official $248.22 (match) · 34 history records