Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:24:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DB 0xdbdd…d429 other 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$281 (+9%) realized +$276 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%45W / 33L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$202
14 days+$263
30 days+$263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$353
sports 14% −$100
crypto 9% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +1.6% -8.1% 59% 57% +3.1%
≤30d 52 -2.5% -11.8% 56% 54% +2.7%
≤90d 52 -2.5% -11.8% 56% 54% +2.7%
all 78 -1.1% -10.5% 58% 55% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 55% +1.1%
10% -19.1% 54% -8.6%
15% -26.9% 46% -17.4%
20% -34.1% 26% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$22 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized+$276
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses45 / 33
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)78 / 83
History coverage132d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 59¢ 65¢ $73 $80 +$7 (+10%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $75 $73 −$2 (-3%)
Netherlands leading at halftime? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $132 +$79 +60%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $12 +$5 +38%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $24 +$9 +38%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $12 −$10 -86%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $12 +$5 +40%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $12 −$11 -91%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $12 −$9 -70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $85 +$4 +5%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $8 +$4 +48%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $11 +$3 +26%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $11 +$6 +52%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $11 +$3 +28%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $86 +$26 +30%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $11 −$1 -5%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $11 −$2 -19%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $20 −$10 -51%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $20 −$13 -65%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $20 −$13 -63%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $20 −$14 -68%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $47 +$22 +48%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $20 $0 -1%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $15 −$9 -58%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $58 +$15 +26%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $36 +$16 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 −$42 -42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $33 +$35 +106%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $140 +$43 +30%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $155 +$75 +49%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $125 −$35 -28%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $101 −$73 -72%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $52 +$46 +89%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $135 +$48 +36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $83 +$52 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $41 +$43 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $36 +$12 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$17 +41%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $94 +$39 +42%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $60 −$44 -74%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $66 −$65 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$55 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $36 −$35 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 1h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 72¢ $25 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 26¢ $26 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $177 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $74 5h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 82¢ $17 5h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $34 5h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 11¢ $2 6h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 62¢ $17 6h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 6¢ $1 6h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 16¢ $4 6h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 34¢ $36 8h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $35 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 90¢ $23 8h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $12 8h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $12 8h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $12 8h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $12 8h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $12 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 87¢ $67 8h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $12 8h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $14 8h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $17 8h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $12 8h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $12 8h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $14 8h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 8h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $61 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.04 · official $203.04 · 190 history records