Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:52:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DB 0xdbdb…b7de other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$77 (+6%) realized +$79 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate70%14W / 6L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days+$71
14 days+$71
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$47
sports 43% +$21
politics 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +2.5% -7.2% 74% 58% -4.5%
≤30d 19 +2.5% -7.2% 74% 58% -4.5%
≤90d 20 -1.7% -11.1% 70% 55% -5.1%
all 20 -1.7% -11.1% 70% 55% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 55% -5.1%
10% -19.6% 25% -14.2%
15% -27.4% 15% -22.5%
20% -34.5% 5% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$25 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$79
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses14 / 6
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage76d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $99 $96 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $91 −$90 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $171 +$22 +13%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $117 +$55 +47%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 −$37 -74%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $110 +$12 +11%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $30 +$2 +8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $186 +$21 +11%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$10 -47%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$6 -30%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $13 +$1 +8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $40 +$12 +29%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $28 +$15 +54%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $47 +$21 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $38 +$7 +19%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 07 $9 −$7 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $99 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $91 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 25h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $193 35h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $171 36h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $172 43h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $117 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 45h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $101 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $104 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $20 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 90¢ $110 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 68¢ $33 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $30 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $90 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 78¢ $55 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 85¢ $60 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 81¢ $49 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $35 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 35¢ $14 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $14 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 92¢ $57 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.43 · official $96.43 (match) · 45 history records