Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:34:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DB 0xdbd6…ffdd crypto 186 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$58 (-3%) realized −$57 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate61%113W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day56.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$23
14 days−$85
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$89
world 2% −$4
sports 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 +1.4% -8.2% 61% 38% -12.1%
≤30d 184 -4.0% -13.1% 61% 38% -13.4%
≤90d 184 -4.0% -13.1% 61% 38% -13.4%
all 184 -4.0% -13.1% 61% 38% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 38% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 21% -21.7%
15% -29.0% 12% -29.2%
20% -36.0% 9% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$57
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses113 / 71
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)184 / 186
History coverage13d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day56.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 77¢ 78¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 37¢ 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$6 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $38 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $23 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $22 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $8 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $6 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 15m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $7 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $8 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $12 45m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.44 · official $8.63 (match) · 901 history records