Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:14:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbd6…c69d other 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$17 (-11%) realized −$14 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%19W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 36% +$6
other 26% −$14
sports 17% −$1
world 9% −$1
weather 6% +$2
economics 3% +$1
politics 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -23.1% -30.5% 26% 26% -18.9%
≤30d 23 -23.1% -30.5% 26% 26% -18.9%
≤90d 23 -23.1% -30.5% 26% 26% -18.9%
all 41 -10.8% -19.3% 46% 44% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 44% -14.3%
10% -27.0% 34% -22.5%
15% -34.1% 22% -30.0%
20% -40.6% 17% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses19 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)41 / 48
History coverage104d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Yes 20¢ 23¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 3 New Zealand? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $2 +$8 +300%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -90%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 15 $1 $0 -26%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +383%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +67%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -45%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$3 +105%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 +$3 +109%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $6 +$4 +73%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 13 be between 2,400, Mar 16 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Ma Mar 14 $2 +$2 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 13 Mar 13 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Mar 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 13 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 13 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Mar 13 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 14? Mar 13 $6 $0 +9%
Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%? Mar 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 13? Mar 12 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 10? Mar 10 $7 +$1 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 10? Mar 10 $5 −$1 -15%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in February? Mar 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 9? Mar 09 $6 +$2 +30%
Will the Individual taxation referendum be approved in Switzerland’s 8 Mar 08 $4 +$2 +40%
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 8) Mar 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? Mar 06 $4 +$2 +48%
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 4? Mar 04 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24m
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 26m
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 31m
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 38m
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 38m
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 38m
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 57m
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 59m
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $3 17h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 25h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 25h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 27h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 27h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 28h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 28h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 28h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $3 40h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 41h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 46h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 46h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 46h
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.77 · official $6.77 (match) · 135 history records