Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:59:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbd4…d704 politics 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 632d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%4W / 78L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 61% −$10
other 25% −$4
economics 12% −$2
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
all 82 -0.6% -10.0% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

632d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses4 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage632d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 23 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 03 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $53 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 22 $53 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 14 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 18 $55 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $55 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 30 $55 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 20 $55 $0 +0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 08 $55 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 07 $55 $0 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Feb 26 $55 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Ryan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois? Feb 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 24 $52 +$1 +1%
Tottenham Hotspur wins the Premier League? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Damian Lillard lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tyrese Haliburton lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Brentford wins the Premier League? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the Serie A? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will another Trump coin be first to reach $1b? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Commanders win the NFC Championship? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the NFC West? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Georgia win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Martin Shkreli jail in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will another player be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Danielle Hunter win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will John Cornyn be the next Senate Majority Leader? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Oregon win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Brooklyn Nets? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will Jaxson Dart be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Dec 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in Assists? Dec 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will Jaxson Dart win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Olympiacos win the UEFA Europa League? Dec 09 $0 $0 -2%
Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during his inauguration speech? Dec 09 $0 $0 -3%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Four Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Dec 09 $0 $0 -2%
Will $FWOG be listed first on Binance? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will Matthew Whitaker be Trump's Attorney General? Dec 09 $0 $0 -1%
Will Jordan Love be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Dec 09 $0 $0 -0%
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Jets win the AFC Championship? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $53 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $53 13h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 11d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 11d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $53 20d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $53 21d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 26d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $53 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $46 32d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 35d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 35d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $53 39d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $54 40d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 49d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 50d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $55 66d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $17 67d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $38 67d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 70d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 70d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 73d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 73d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $55 85d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $55 85d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $55 95d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $17 95d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $38 95d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $55 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 174 history records