Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:36:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbd4…378f other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate57%26W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$3
other 25% +$1
politics 9% $0
finance 4% $0
sports 3% +$1
culture 3% +$1
crypto 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 -0.5% -10.0% 43% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 14 -0.5% -10.0% 43% 0% -10.0%
all 46 -4.7% -13.8% 57% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -22.0% 0% -18.4%
15% -29.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses26 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage473d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $15 $0 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $33 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $76 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $67 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $79 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $34 +$2 +7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $38 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $39 −$7 -19%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $45 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 22 $16 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Dec 10 $2 $0 +9%
Will Frances Tiafoe win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr Jun 07 $12 +$1 +7%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 21 $12 $0 +1%
Will Norway finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 19 $9 $0 +5%
Will Lee Jae-myung win more than 65% of the vote in the South Korea el May 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 World Series? May 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Sali Berisha be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 May 08 $3 −$2 -47%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 2–9? May 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? May 07 $15 +$1 +4%
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 Apr 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 06 $6 $0 -1%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 06 $15 $0 +2%
Dogecoin above $0.17 on March 28? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-28? Mar 27 $16 +$1 +3%
Mount St. Mary's s vs. Duke Mar 22 $17 $0 +1%
Will "Instruments of a Beating Heart" win Best Documentary Short Film Mar 21 $15 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $41 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $40 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $40 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $16 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $37 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $37 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $11 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $40 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 16d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $36 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $36 17d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 18d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 18d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $7 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $29 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $13 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $21 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $14 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $16 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $3 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $33 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.66 · official $40.66 (match) · 148 history records