Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:07:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbd2…1042 crypto 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$64 (-2%) realized −$62 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate77%95W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$66
other 12% +$21
world 6% −$25
politics 4% $0
economics 3% −$4
culture 2% −$1
finance 2% +$9
tech 1% +$2
sports 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -10.5% -19.0% 62% 38% -10.5%
≤90d 34 -3.4% -12.6% 79% 32% -9.9%
all 124 -5.5% -14.5% 77% 15% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 15% -11.2%
10% -22.7% 4% -19.7%
15% -30.1% 2% -27.4%
20% -37.0% 2% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$62
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses95 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)124 / 143
History coverage264d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 23¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 59¢ 20¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-67%)
SBF released from custody in 2026? No 88¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 89¢ 89¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 81¢ 99¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 76¢ 89¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 96¢ 90¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $26 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 02 $7 −$7 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $9 −$5 -52%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $12 $0 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? Jun 02 $11 +$1 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 02 $17 +$4 +24%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 02 $14 +$3 +22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? Jun 02 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 18 $3 +$1 +28%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 18 $8 +$1 +11%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 18 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 12 $4 +$1 +19%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 05 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 05 $15 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 05 $10 +$2 +20%
Will the Boston Bruins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $19 +$1 +7%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 05 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 05 $16 +$3 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 18 $28 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 18 $18 +$1 +5%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 14 $10 −$2 -22%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $41 +$3 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 02 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Apr 02 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 02 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Solana dip to $70 in March? Apr 02 $13 +$1 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 02 $17 +$2 +11%
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 02 $14 +$2 +15%
Will Cory Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Jersey? Apr 01 $6 $0 +3%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 26 $24 +$3 +14%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 09 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Mar 09 $43 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 10, 2026 (ET)? Mar 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in February? Mar 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Mar 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 11, 2026 (ET)? Mar 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February? Mar 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? Mar 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in February? Mar 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Feb 28 $30 +$4 +12%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 18 $49 −$1 -2%
Espresso FDV above $400M one day after launch? Feb 14 $8 +$2 +20%
Epstein client list released by June 30? Feb 13 $5 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 47m
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 55m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $23 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $38 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $38 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $38 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $39 1h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 1h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 1h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $39 1h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $39 1h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL Yes 88¢ $14 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $18 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 1h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 89¢ $15 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $17 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 14d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 14d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $13 14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $13 14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $26 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $11 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.95 · official $45.93 · 367 history records