Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:30:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbcf…1b69 other 915 markets active 2h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$193 (-6%) realized −$193 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%435W / 473L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$4
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$154
sports 25% −$57
world 2% +$21
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -36.8% -42.8% 36% 36% -13.6%
≤30d 131 -5.7% -14.7% 48% 48% -7.4%
≤90d 268 -8.8% -17.5% 44% 43% -16.6%
all 908 -1.1% -10.5% 48% 46% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 46% -14.8%
10% -19.0% 44% -23.0%
15% -26.9% 39% -30.4%
20% -34.0% 34% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$193
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses435 / 473
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)908 / 915
History coverage241d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 908 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 402 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1 $0 -20%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $25 +$4 +16%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $4 +$2 +54%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $1 +$1 +86%
Netherlands to win the second half? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +20%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $3 +$3 +90%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $11 +$3 +25%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Petar Musa: 2+ goals Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $1 +$1 +93%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +97%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +60%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -70%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $1 +$2 +158%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $1 +$1 +97%
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$9 +46%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$2 +165%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 +$2 +169%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +129%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $1 $0 +40%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $29 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $25 9h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 9h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $3 9h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 95¢ $6 28h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 30h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $4 32h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 32h
Netherlands to win the second half? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 3d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 3d
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $2 4d
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 4d
Petar Musa: 2+ goals BUY Yes $1 4d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $1 5d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 22¢ $1 5d
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.19 · official $1.19 (match) · 1511 history records