Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:44:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbce…c781 crypto 638 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$115 (-4%) realized −$115 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%239W / 399L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$32
14 days−$55
30 days−$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$137
weather 35% −$89
politics 15% +$49
sports 3% −$9
other 2% −$19
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -93.1% -93.8% 0% 0% -94.8%
≤30d 237 -19.4% -27.1% 35% 35% -24.0%
≤90d 634 -11.8% -20.2% 37% 36% -16.0%
all 638 -11.8% -20.2% 37% 36% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 36% -16.1%
10% -27.8% 33% -24.1%
15% -34.8% 31% -31.4%
20% -41.2% 28% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses239 / 399
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)638 / 638
History coverage124d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 638 Trades
no open positions (310 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 07 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 07 $6 −$3 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 8? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 07 $4 −$3 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 07 $6 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 07 $4 +$23 +553%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$3 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$8 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 07 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$6 +308%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 06 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 06 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 06 $4 +$6 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$5 +246%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$6 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$7 +346%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 9d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 8? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1116 history records