Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:46:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DB 0xdbcc…25a7 crypto 1317 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$44 (+1%) realized +$42 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%634W / 556L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day37.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$186
7 days+$290
14 days+$321
30 days+$303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$314
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 673 +17.4% +6.2% 56% 56% +7.0%
≤30d 815 +14.9% +4.0% 54% 54% +4.8%
≤90d 1190 +10.3% -0.2% 53% 53% +0.4%
all 1190 +10.3% -0.2% 53% 53% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.2% 53% +0.4%
10% ← realistic here -9.7% 53% -9.2%
15% -18.4% 53% -18.0%
20% -26.4% 53% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses634 / 556
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1190 / 1317
History coverage41d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day37.4
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 35¢ 72¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+107%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$4 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.62 · official $2.48 · 2177 history records