Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:32:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DB 0xdbcb…64ae sports 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$812 (+36%) realized +$825 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%15W / 19L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$331now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$237
7 days+$575
14 days+$575
30 days+$575
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$491
other 36% +$144
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +14.9% +3.9% 40% 40% +21.3%
≤30d 30 +14.9% +3.9% 40% 40% +21.3%
≤90d 30 +14.9% +3.9% 40% 40% +21.3%
all 34 +20.9% +9.4% 44% 44% +23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.4% 44% +23.7%
10% -1.1% 44% +11.9%
15% -10.6% 44% +1.1%
20% -19.4% 44% -8.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$30 · ×2.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$331
Realized+$825
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 41
History coverage221d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $344 $331 −$13 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $178 −$174 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $61 −$60 -99%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $102 −$5 -5%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $122 +$120 +98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 −$3 -42%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $81 +$41 +50%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $138 +$137 +99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$28 +145%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Ira Jun 16 $20 −$8 -42%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: France (- Jun 16 $16 −$3 -19%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Ira Jun 16 $31 −$11 -35%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: France (- Jun 16 $15 −$5 -34%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $180 +$275 +153%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Saudi Jun 16 $16 +$22 +137%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $33 −$22 -66%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 +$2 +55%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $35 +$192 +550%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $56 +$53 +95%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $17 −$13 -73%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $35 +$31 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -85%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $56 −$9 -16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $215 +$239 +111%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $45 +$42 +92%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 09 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $18 +$27 +148%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $8 +$10 +125%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $93 30m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $257 34m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $50 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $128 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 21¢ $11 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $50 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND Eng BUY 18¢ $40 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $97 16h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $23 18h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $44 18h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $55 19h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 49¢ $4 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 33¢ $4 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $6 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL 51¢ $121 21h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $19 23h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 44¢ $18 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $48 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $20 24h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 45¢ $30 24h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $70 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY 32¢ $50 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY 33¢ $31 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Ira SELL 10¢ $12 27h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Nor BUY 43¢ $20 27h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Nor BUY 14¢ $14 29h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs BUY $9 29h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: France (- SELL $13 30h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Ira SELL $20 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $331.28 · official $331.28 (match) · 101 history records