Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:54:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DB 0xdbca…ca8d sports 805 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$22,531 (-11%) realized −$22,463 · open −$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%365W / 429L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$266per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$2,780est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$2,892now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,246
7 days+$1,228
14 days−$15,395
30 days−$18,630
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$18,531
other 13% −$3,221
crypto 0% +$409
world 0% −$193
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +2.3% -7.4% 49% 49% -3.8%
≤30d 290 -6.9% -15.7% 45% 45% -21.3%
≤90d 794 -5.0% -14.0% 46% 46% -18.8%
all 794 -5.0% -14.0% 46% 46% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 46% -18.8%
10% -22.2% 46% -26.6%
15% -29.8% 45% -33.7%
20% -36.6% 42% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$253 vs −$265 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$2,892
Realized−$22,463
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses365 / 429
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$2,780
Open positions11
Markets (closed)794 / 805
History coverage66d
Avg bet$266
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 794 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 34¢ 36¢ $500 $522 +$22 (+4%)
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Algeria 37¢ 36¢ $500 $493 −$7 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $500 $483 −$17 (-3%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 57¢ 55¢ $500 $478 −$22 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $150 $203 +$53 (+35%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $150 $184 +$34 (+23%)
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions KT Wiz 53¢ 62¢ $150 $173 +$23 (+16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $160 $131 −$29 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $150 $92 −$58 (-39%)
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Doosan Bears NC Dinos 45¢ 24¢ $150 $79 −$71 (-47%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 86¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 359 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $510 +$961 +188%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $507 +$454 +90%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $510 +$961 +188%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $510 +$1,005 +197%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $507 +$436 +86%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $800 −$787 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) Jun 21 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $506 +$301 +60%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $506 +$301 +60%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $507 +$473 +93%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $506 +$301 +60%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $154 −$16 -10%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $509 −$500 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $506 +$356 +70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $509 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $509 −$500 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 20 $154 −$150 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 20 $154 −$150 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $510 −$500 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,015 +$393 +39%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $507 +$473 +93%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $506 +$341 +67%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $507 +$386 +76%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $507 +$402 +79%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $154 −$150 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $509 −$500 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $507 +$436 +86%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $508 +$603 +119%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $508 +$579 +114%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $509 −$500 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $506 −$500 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $508 −$500 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $507 −$500 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $506 −$500 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $506 +$341 +67%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $153 −$150 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $506 −$500 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $153 +$302 +197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $153 +$276 +180%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $2,047 −$2,000 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,016 +$1,110 +109%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 37¢ $509 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $508 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $506 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $510 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $507 10h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 45¢ $800 13h
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) BUY FURIA 55¢ $1,013 14h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 34¢ $510 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 34¢ $510 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $510 25h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $507 25h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 16¢ $138 33h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 39¢ $509 33h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 38¢ $509 37h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $507 40h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $509 42h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $154 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 17¢ $154 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $506 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $154 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $154 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $506 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $506 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $510 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $506 2d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $506 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $154 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $507 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $507 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 46¢ $481 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,892.22 · official $2,892.22 (match) · 1331 history records