Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:51:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DB 0xdbc8…9862 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%9W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,377per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$245now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$11
sports 19% +$3
other 10% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 9 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$245
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses9 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage135d
Avg bet$1,377
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $231 $231 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 25 $211 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on April 20? May 16 $62 $0 +0%
Espresso FDV above $50M one day after launch? Feb 14 $43 $0 +0%
Espresso FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 14 $1,442 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 13? Feb 14 $1,466 +$1 +0%
Bucks vs. Thunder Feb 13 $2,948 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 12? Feb 13 $2,945 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 11? Feb 12 $2,841 +$3 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on February 10? Feb 11 $2,940 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $231 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $211 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $62 68d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $14 109d
Espresso FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $1,442 131d
Espresso FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $43 132d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 13? BUY No 100¢ $1,466 132d
Bucks vs. Thunder BUY Bucks 100¢ $2,948 132d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 12? BUY No 100¢ $2,945 133d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 11? BUY No 100¢ $2,841 134d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on February 10? BUY No 100¢ $2,940 135d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $244.83 · official $244.83 (match) · 46 history records