Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:04:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbc6…464c weather 529 markets active 1h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,323 (-6%) realized −$8,364 · open +$41
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate78%412W / 113L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days−$85
14 days−$135
30 days−$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 71% −$4,717
sports 27% −$3,041
other 1% −$33
politics 0% −$46
tech 0% +$17
finance 0% +$4
world 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -14.5% -22.7% 75% 12% -19.3%
≤30d 13 -14.5% -22.7% 77% 8% -16.5%
≤90d 17 -10.0% -18.6% 82% 6% -14.2%
all 525 +1.4% -8.3% 78% 27% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 27% -14.8%
10% -17.1% 15% -22.9%
15% -25.1% 10% -30.4%
20% -32.4% 8% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$152 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$229
Realized−$8,364
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses412 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)525 / 529
History coverage246d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 525 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Karmine Corp 81¢ 100¢ $121 $150 +$29 (+24%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 99¢ $33 $39 +$7 (+21%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 80¢ 100¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+25%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Under 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $38 +$11 +30%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $134 +$14 +10%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $98 −$98 -100%
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 Jun 27 $187 −$39 -21%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $96 +$4 +4%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS Jun 27 $88 +$6 +7%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $121 +$6 +5%
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS Jun 27 $157 +$11 +7%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.00T and 2.25T? Jun 15 $178 +$2 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $52 −$51 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $116 +$11 +10%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $48 +$4 +7%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Jun 08 $170 +$16 +9%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% before 2027? May 16 $169 +$2 +1%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $46 +$4 +8%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 14 $144 +$10 +7%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Jan 27 $4 +$5 +113%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on December Jan 01 $9 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 40°F or higher on Dec Jan 01 $29 +$5 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 48°F or higher on December Jan 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on December Dec 29 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on De Dec 29 $28 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on December Dec 29 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on De Dec 29 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on December Dec 29 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on December Dec 27 $13 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on December Dec 27 $57 +$10 +18%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 34°F or higher on Dec Dec 27 $122 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on December Dec 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on December 25? Dec 26 $33 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on December 25? Dec 25 $45 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on December 25? Dec 25 $71 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on De Dec 24 $93 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 39°F or below on Dece Dec 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on December Dec 24 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 42°F or higher on Dec Dec 23 $59 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on December Dec 23 $129 +$10 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on De Dec 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on December 20? Dec 21 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on December Dec 21 $98 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -9°C or below on December 1 Dec 17 $18 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on December Dec 17 $37 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on December 14? Dec 17 $41 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 56°F or higher on December Dec 17 $67 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on December 14? Dec 17 $62 +$8 +13%
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C or higher on Dece Dec 14 $220 −$200 -91%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on December 14? Dec 14 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -6°C on December 14? Dec 14 $96 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $15 50m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 72¢ $14 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 62¢ $12 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 88¢ $18 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 83¢ $42 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 86¢ $52 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 87¢ $35 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 100¢ $50 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 80¢ $31 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 80¢ $9 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 81¢ $41 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $20 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 77¢ $38 2h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 100¢ $148 2h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 97¢ $66 2h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 85¢ $68 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Dplus KIA 98¢ $98 20h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 BUY DK 98¢ $49 20h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 SELL DK 99¢ $148 20h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 BUY DK 94¢ $41 20h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 BUY DK 94¢ $6 21h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 BUY DK 95¢ $17 21h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 BUY DK 95¢ $48 21h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 BUY DK 83¢ $26 21h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL DN SOOPers 100¢ $100 21h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY DN SOOPers 96¢ $43 21h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY DN SOOPers 96¢ $53 21h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS SELL DNS 90¢ $90 21h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS SELL LOS 19¢ $4 21h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS BUY DNS 82¢ $12 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $229.09 · official $229.09 (match) · 2586 history records