Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:19:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbc4…35e3 weather 437 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,033 (-14%) realized −$8,975 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%188W / 236L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day39.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,382now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days−$846
14 days−$657
30 days−$3,939
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$7,245
weather 19% +$647
other 15% −$1,284
finance 12% −$1,395
world 2% +$9
politics 1% −$3
tech 1% −$1
economics 0% −$16
sports 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -21.2% -28.7% 48% 35% -20.9%
≤30d 89 -19.2% -26.9% 47% 33% -21.6%
≤90d 424 -12.1% -20.5% 44% 33% -23.1%
all 424 -12.1% -20.5% 44% 33% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.5% 33% -23.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 25% -30.4%
15% -35.0% 19% -37.1%
20% -41.4% 16% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -40% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$90 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$1,382
Realized−$8,975
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses188 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)424 / 437
History coverage54d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day39.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 424 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Down 47¢ 72¢ $153 $232 +$80 (+52%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Down 71¢ 69¢ $165 $161 −$5 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? Up 68¢ 55¢ $188 $152 −$36 (-19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Up 36¢ 30¢ $147 $125 −$22 (-15%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Down 66¢ 92¢ $85 $118 +$33 (+39%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7AM ET Down 75¢ 81¢ $83 $91 +$7 (+9%)
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Up 69¢ 51¢ $95 $70 −$25 (-26%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Down 71¢ 68¢ $66 $63 −$3 (-4%)
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Down 46¢ 62¢ $46 $63 +$16 (+36%)
BNB Up or Down on June 29? Down 49¢ 66¢ $40 $54 +$14 (+35%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 29? Down 61¢ 64¢ $47 $50 +$3 (+6%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 29? Up 61¢ 36¢ $77 $45 −$32 (-41%)
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Down 40¢ 49¢ $35 $42 +$7 (+21%)
BNB Up or Down on June 29? Up 50¢ 34¢ $46 $31 −$15 (-33%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Up 37¢ 32¢ $33 $29 −$4 (-13%)
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Up 49¢ 38¢ $33 $26 −$8 (-23%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Down 40¢ 70¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+75%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Up 40¢ 8¢ $50 $11 −$39 (-79%)
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 7AM ET Up 10¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 29? Up 27¢ 15¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 175 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 29 $12 +$3 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET Jun 29 $4 +$2 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET Jun 29 $65 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET Jun 29 $236 +$54 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$3 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 29 $32 −$31 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 29 $38 +$12 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 29 $45 +$3 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET Jun 29 $7 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 29 $62 −$58 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 29 $274 +$13 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $114 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5AM ET Jun 29 $43 +$6 +14%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 5AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$4 +15%
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5AM ET Jun 29 $19 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 29 $24 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 29 $46 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $231 +$57 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $62 −$12 -20%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $9 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 29 $263 +$30 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 29 $40 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $214 −$30 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $42 −$42 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $202 +$39 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $104 +$98 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 29 $102 −$100 -98%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $156 −$11 -7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $797 −$541 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $96 +$4 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $1,168 +$32 +3%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $610 +$20 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $9 $0 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $26 −$10 -41%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $161 −$4 -2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $304 −$304 -100%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $533 +$117 +22%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 22 $50 −$3 -5%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 22 $11 −$4 -36%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $446 −$414 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $309 +$217 +70%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $301 +$123 +41%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $334 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $208 0m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 1m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 1m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $6 1m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $27 1m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 1m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $51 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $31 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $117 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $31 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $20 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $122 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $19 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $78 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 5m
BNB Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 37¢ $12 7m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 59¢ $13 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 8m
BNB Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 50¢ $8 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 7AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $12 14m
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 26¢ $1 16m
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 28¢ $1 17m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,381.65 · official $1,347.53 · 2426 history records