Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:37:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

DB 0xdbc2…9260 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$30 (-14%) realized −$17 · open −$13

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip

Net edge-35%after slip

Net WR45%break-even

Win rate45%9W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$10per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Kalshi-fit52%portable

Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$11

7 days+$11

14 days+$11

30 days+$11

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +45%

net ROI/market (all)-35.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+22.6%	+10.9%	100%	100%	+10.5%
≤30d	3	+22.6%	+10.9%	100%	100%	+10.5%
≤90d	3	+22.6%	+10.9%	100%	100%	+10.5%
all	20	-28.2%	-35.0%	45%	45%	-25.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-35.0%	45%	-25.5%
10%	-41.2%	35%	-32.7%
15%	-46.9%	30%	-39.2%
20%	-52.1%	25%	-45.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 54% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +22% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -28% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -46% → late -10% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.57 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage

Net worth$14

Realized−$17

Unrealized−$13

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses9 / 11

Open positions1

Markets (closed)20 / 21

History coverage172d

Avg bet$10

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	74¢	38¢	$27	$14	−$13 (-48%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$25	+$4	+14%
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$8	+$1	+15%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$15	+$6	+38%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance	Jan 25	$6	−$6	-100%
Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Alliance (BO3) - United21 x Esplay	Jan 25	$4	−$4	-100%
Counter-Strike: kONO.ECF vs AaB esport (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Gr	Jan 25	$19	−$14	-73%
Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Play	Jan 25	$14	+$11	+79%
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs Team Envy (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playof	Jan 25	$5	+$3	+56%
Auburn Tigers vs. Florida Gators	Jan 24	$10	−$1	-7%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-24?	Jan 24	$5	+$4	+96%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Xavier Musketeers	Jan 24	$4	+$1	+28%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-24?	Jan 24	$2	+$1	+56%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-24?	Jan 24	$11	−$8	-79%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs KOLESIE (BO3) - IEM Rio: Global Closed	Jan 21	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,700 by end of January?	Jan 18	$5	−$5	-100%
LoL: DRX vs T1 (BO3)	Jan 18	$15	−$4	-27%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier	Jan 18	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11?	Jan 10	$17	−$17	-100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-09?	Jan 09	$15	−$15	-100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-08?	Jan 09	$10	+$13	+133%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	74¢	$27	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	87¢	$25	46h
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	100¢	$9	46h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	89¢	$16	46h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	55¢	$5	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	55¢	$5	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	86¢	$8	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	55¢	$10	2d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance	BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas	69¢	$6	155d
Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Alliance (BO3) - United21 x Esplay	BUY SemperFi Esports	17¢	$4	155d
Counter-Strike: kONO.ECF vs AaB esport (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Gr	BUY kONO.ECF	43¢	$5	155d
Counter-Strike: kONO.ECF vs AaB esport (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Gr	SELL kONO.ECF	34¢	$5	155d
Counter-Strike: kONO.ECF vs AaB esport (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Gr	BUY kONO.ECF	46¢	$14	155d
Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Play	SELL All Gamers	100¢	$12	155d
Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Play	SELL All Gamers	97¢	$12	155d
Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Play	BUY All Gamers	55¢	$14	155d
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs Team Envy (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playof	BUY Team Envy	64¢	$5	155d
Auburn Tigers vs. Florida Gators	SELL Florida Gators	4¢	$0	155d
Auburn Tigers vs. Florida Gators	BUY Florida Gators	6¢	$1	155d
Auburn Tigers vs. Florida Gators	SELL Auburn Tigers	69¢	$11	155d
Auburn Tigers vs. Florida Gators	BUY Auburn Tigers	55¢	$9	155d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$9	155d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-24?	BUY Yes	51¢	$5	156d
St. John's Red Storm vs. Xavier Musketeers	SELL St. Johns Red Storm	100¢	$5	156d
St. John's Red Storm vs. Xavier Musketeers	BUY St. Johns Red Storm	78¢	$4	156d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$4	156d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-24?	BUY Yes	64¢	$2	156d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-24?	SELL Yes	7¢	$2	156d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-24?	BUY Yes	33¢	$11	156d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs KOLESIE (BO3) - IEM Rio: Global Closed	BUY KOLESIE	33¢	$2	158d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.08 · official $14.44 (match) · 46 history records