Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:48:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbc1…49d7 other 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$189 (-22%) realized −$190 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%2W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$41
sports 18% −$153
crypto 2% −$5
tech 1% −$3
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -8.4% -17.1% 5% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 27 -14.9% -23.0% 7% 4% -32.3%
≤90d 27 -14.9% -23.0% 7% 4% -32.3%
all 27 -14.9% -23.0% 7% 4% -32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 4% -32.3%
10% -30.4% 4% -38.8%
15% -37.1% 4% -44.7%
20% -43.3% 4% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$190
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses2 / 25
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage21d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on IPO day? No 34¢ 34¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.25B and $1.5B at market c Jun 15 $32 $0 -2%
GMGN FDV above $400M one day after launch Jun 15 $35 −$3 -9%
Will Japan (18) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FIFA Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Will IR Iran (20) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FI Jun 14 $8 $0 -2%
Tread FDV above $400M one day after launch Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 13 $94 +$8 +8%
Will Nicolás Otamendi be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 13 $4 $0 -3%
Will Lautaro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 13 $9 −$1 -15%
Will Egypt go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Ecuador go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $21 −$3 -12%
Will Ivory Coast go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $17 −$1 -4%
Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 12 $30 $0 -1%
Will Jordan go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $0 $0 -29%
Will DR Congo go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $4 $0 -10%
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $7 $0 -4%
Will Uzbekistan go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -15%
Tread FDV above $500M one day after launch Jun 10 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Symbiotic launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 10 $11 −$1 -9%
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 08 $35 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 28 $9 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 28 $5 +$4 +73%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $155 −$153 -99%
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? May 26 $40 −$2 -4%
Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2027? May 26 $34 −$15 -44%
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2027? May 26 $46 −$17 -36%
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2027? May 25 $75 −$2 -3%
Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the le May 25 $10 −$3 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on SELL No 33¢ $8 20m
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on BUY No 25¢ $4 53m
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on BUY No 25¢ $2 53m
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on BUY No 34¢ $7 53m
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on BUY No 36¢ $18 55m
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on BUY No 36¢ $7 55m
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.25B and $1.5B at market c SELL No 80¢ $32 59m
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.25B and $1.5B at market c BUY No 81¢ $16 1h
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.25B and $1.5B at market c BUY No 81¢ $16 1h
GMGN FDV above $400M one day after launch SELL No 71¢ $31 16h
GMGN FDV above $400M one day after launch BUY No 75¢ $4 16h
Will Japan (18) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FIFA SELL Yes 10¢ $1 21h
Will Japan (18) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FIFA BUY Yes 10¢ $1 21h
GMGN FDV above $400M one day after launch BUY No 77¢ $31 22h
Will IR Iran (20) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FI SELL Yes 25¢ $7 23h
Will IR Iran (20) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FI BUY Yes 25¢ $8 23h
Tread FDV above $400M one day after launch SELL No 95¢ $38 28h
Tread FDV above $400M one day after launch BUY No 95¢ $38 28h
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL No 56¢ $3 41h
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL No 56¢ $18 41h
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No 30¢ $2 43h
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL No 31¢ $2 45h
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL No 29¢ $14 46h
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No 34¢ $2 47h
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No 38¢ $2 47h
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL No 28¢ $7 47h
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL No 28¢ $10 47h
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL No 30¢ $28 47h
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No 38¢ $2 47h
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No 38¢ $2 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.66 · official $29.67 (match) · 120 history records