Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:26:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DB 0xdbbf…9220 world 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+2%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$310per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% $0
crypto 20% −$3
politics 20% +$1
other 20% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 +1.8% -7.9% 60% 0% -7.9%
≤90d 5 +1.8% -7.9% 60% 0% -7.9%
all 5 +1.8% -7.9% 60% 0% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 0% -7.9%
10% -16.7% 0% -16.7%
15% -24.7% 0% -24.8%
20% -32.1% 0% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$3 · ×2.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.98 per $1 lost it wins $8.98
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage12d
Avg bet$310
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? Jun 23 $310 +$1 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? Jun 23 $310 $0 +0%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Jun 22 $309 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? Jun 22 $314 −$3 -1%
Game 2: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? Jun 11 $305 +$29 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $312 43m
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $310 1h
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $310 1h
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $310 2h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $309 21h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $309 22h
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $310 22h
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $314 22h
Game 2: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? BUY No 91¢ $305 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records