Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:36:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DB 0xdbbe…9fb7 sports 613 markets active 1h ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,237 (-5%) realized −$2,250 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%330W / 282L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$234est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$22
14 days−$54
30 days−$1,279
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,420
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +14.5% +3.6% 100% 100% +3.6%
≤30d 73 -9.5% -18.1% 51% 49% -28.7%
≤90d 304 -8.7% -17.4% 54% 49% -16.7%
all 612 -2.0% -11.3% 54% 48% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 48% -14.8%
10% -19.8% 39% -22.9%
15% -27.6% 30% -30.4%
20% -34.7% 18% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$35 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$2,250
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses330 / 282
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$234
Open positions1
Markets (closed)612 / 613
History coverage206d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 612 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Team Liquid 79¢ 100¢ $50 $63 +$13 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $50 +$6 +12%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $50 +$7 +13%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $50 +$9 +18%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $71 +$18 +25%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $32 +$26 +80%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $56 +$29 +52%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $27 +$29 +105%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $15 +$11 +70%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $91 −$78 -86%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $71 +$16 +22%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $61 −$2 -3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $60 +$15 +26%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30 +$15 +50%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $69 −$18 -26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $52 +$18 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $45 +$7 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $30 +$13 +41%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $3 +$3 +100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $20 −$7 -35%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $12 +$8 +62%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $10 +$5 +50%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$4 +38%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $31 −$23 -75%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $30 +$5 +18%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $100 −$99 -99%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $117 −$115 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $200 −$106 -53%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $357 −$246 -69%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $729 −$138 -19%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $10 +$85 +829%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $199 −$196 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $153 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $510 +$171 +34%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $302 −$7 -2%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $202 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $106 −$105 -99%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $4 +$3 +67%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 79¢ $50 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $56 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 89¢ $50 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $57 2h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 88¢ $50 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 84¢ $50 36h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 30¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 65¢ $20 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 70¢ $64 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $51 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 82¢ $24 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $20 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 88¢ $58 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $32 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 35¢ $4 10d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 35¢ $31 10d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 43¢ $51 10d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 94¢ $86 10d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 61¢ $56 10d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $56 10d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 48¢ $27 10d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $15 13d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 8¢ $13 13d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 5¢ $1 13d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 58¢ $91 13d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 76¢ $25 14d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 68¢ $62 14d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $71 14d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $1 14d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $76 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.26 · official $63.26 (match) · 1713 history records