Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:11:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbbd…a2e8 sports 206 markets active 2h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%26W / 180L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$5
other 26% −$5
politics 20% −$3
crypto 8% −$2
culture 6% −$2
economics 6% $0
tech 3% −$1
world 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.8% -11.2% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 4 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 35 -0.3% -9.8% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 206 -0.1% -9.7% 13% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses26 / 180
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)206 / 206
History coverage169d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 206 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 23 $34 −$1 -2%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 08 $33 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $107 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $34 $0 -1%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 03 $31 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 03 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Apr 03 $69 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 02 $338 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 02 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $72 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 02 $215 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 01 $95 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $152 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 01 $211 $0 -0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 31 $27 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 31 $26 $0 -0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 31 $31 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 30 $291 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $355 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $38 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $33 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Mar 29 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 29 $110 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $30 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $173 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $87 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 27 $70 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 27 $31 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 27 $94 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 27 $144 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 26 $69 $0 -0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 24 $63 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 24 $63 $0 -0%
Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $39 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 23 $88 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Mar 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $38 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 19 $112 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 18 $141 −$1 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 17 $32 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $33 1h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $34 7h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $26 7d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $26 7d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 95¢ $33 15d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 16d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $26 23d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $26 23d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $34 36d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $34 36d
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 98¢ $31 81d
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $31 81d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 81d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 81d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $28 81d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $28 82d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $37 82d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $37 82d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL No 98¢ $37 82d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 98¢ $37 82d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $27 82d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $27 82d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL No 98¢ $32 82d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 98¢ $32 82d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $39 82d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $39 82d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 95¢ $34 82d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 95¢ $34 83d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 83d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $33 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 849 history records