Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:18:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbbb…0aa1 sports 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$944 (-61%) realized −$942 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 77% −$908
tech 14% −$2
world 5% −$7
crypto 2% −$23
sports 1% $0
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-41.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 -97.6% -97.9% 0% 0% -97.9%
all 31 -34.8% -41.0% 39% 39% -89.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.0% 39% -89.2%
10% -46.7% 26% -90.3%
15% -51.8% 26% -91.2%
20% -56.6% 13% -92.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -98% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -88% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -74% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$50 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$219
Realized−$942
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage134d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 69¢ 68¢ $220 $219 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $1,151 −$872 -76%
Clippers vs. Grizzlies Mar 08 $2 +$2 +81%
Pacers vs. Wizards Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Mar 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Mar 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" in Corpus Christi on Friday? Mar 08 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Unio Mar 08 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 02 $1 $0 +43%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $30 −$7 -23%
Will Trump say "Voter ID" or "VoterID" in Corpus Christi on Friday? Feb 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Starmer say "Mandelson" during the next Prime Minister's Question Feb 25 $15 −$13 -85%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 22 $1 +$1 +67%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 22 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Jazz vs. Grizzlies Feb 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Heat vs. Hawks Feb 21 $2 +$1 +39%
Clippers vs. Lakers Feb 21 $1 $0 +45%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-20? Feb 21 $1 +$1 +72%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets Feb 21 $6 +$1 +15%
Men's Semifinals - USA vs. Slovakia Feb 21 $1 $0 +14%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 20 $5 −$3 -60%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 20 $31 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 09 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 09 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 09 $2 +$2 +96%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 04 $15 −$3 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $122 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $101 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 67d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY Yes 25¢ $17 67d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 67d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 67d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY Yes 25¢ $119 67d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY Yes 28¢ $109 67d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY Yes 30¢ $100 67d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? SELL Yes 41¢ $102 79d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY Yes 32¢ $62 80d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 84d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY Yes 34¢ $85 92d
Clippers vs. Grizzlies SELL Clippers 100¢ $4 102d
Clippers vs. Grizzlies BUY Clippers 55¢ $2 102d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? SELL Yes 38¢ $76 104d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 BUY FUT Esports 70¢ $1 109d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL No 1¢ $7 109d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL No 3¢ $17 109d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY No 2¢ $15 109d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY No 4¢ $15 109d
Will Trump say "Voter ID" or "VoterID" in Corpus Christi on Friday? SELL No 0¢ $0 110d
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" in Corpus Christi on Friday? BUY No 31¢ $6 110d
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" in Corpus Christi on Friday? BUY No 34¢ $7 110d
Will Trump say "Voter ID" or "VoterID" in Corpus Christi on Friday? BUY No 23¢ $10 110d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY Yes 35¢ $70 110d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY Yes 35¢ $12 111d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY Yes 35¢ $12 111d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 111d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.67 · official $218.67 (match) · 109 history records