Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:17:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbb9…bf4a weather 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$82 (+14%) realized +$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate88%77W / 11L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$31
14 days+$78
30 days+$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$80
sports 2% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +12.2% +1.6% 85% 30% +0.4%
≤30d 88 +12.6% +1.9% 88% 28% +3.5%
≤90d 88 +12.6% +1.9% 88% 28% +3.5%
all 88 +12.6% +1.9% 88% 28% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.9% 28% +3.5%
10% -7.9% 18% -6.4%
15% -16.8% 11% -15.4%
20% -24.9% 9% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.5 per $1 lost it wins $2.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses77 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)88 / 92
History coverage28d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Yes 92¢ 86¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 16 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$40 +772%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $10 −$2 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 9? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$6 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 41m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 41m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 41m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 41m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 41m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 41m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 41m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 41m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.49 · official $31.49 (match) · 626 history records