Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:19:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbb8…f7de politics 188 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d only
✗ bot/MM pace (202 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$64 (+2%) realized +$67 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate20%116W / 451L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day202.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$291
7 days−$294
14 days−$281
30 days−$256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$8
politics 28% −$5
other 26% +$27
sports 6% −$1
finance 2% +$2
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (202 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 466 +12.1% +1.5% 16% 13% -25.8%
≤30d 567 +8.5% -1.9% 20% 15% -16.1%
≤90d 567 +8.5% -1.9% 20% 15% -16.1%
all 567 +8.5% -1.9% 20% 15% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover202.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.9% 15% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -11.2% 13% -24.1%
15% -19.8% 11% -31.5%
20% -27.7% 10% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$67
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses116 / 451
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions79
Markets (closed)567 / 188
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day202.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 79 History 567 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027? No 19¢ 60¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+216%)
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 No 35¢ 72¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+104%)
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? No 41¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 41¢ 84¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+106%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 36¢ 99¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+170%)
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? No 36¢ 49¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+36%)
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-37%)
Will Fred Heurtebise win the Republican Primary for U.S. Senate in Michigan? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+54%)
X banned in any European country by December 31? Yes 22¢ 35¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+59%)
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly two nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? Yes 52¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+53%)
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? Yes 21¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+52%)
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 29¢ 65¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+124%)
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? Yes 36¢ 84¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+134%)
Will Kent Benham win the Republican Primary for U.S. Senate in Michigan? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-52%)
Will Twice release a song in 2026? No 9¢ 24¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+163%)
Will Bill Gates Jr. win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Will Concrete launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Yes 4¢ 16¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+323%)
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027? Yes 26¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-52%)
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? No 64¢ 65¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Las Vegas Raiders next? No 18¢ 20¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? No 41¢ 38¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 33¢ 34¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 421 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bulgaria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 16 $0 +$3 +1975%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? Jun 16 $0 +$2 +1086%
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 16 $0 $0 -247%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 5? Jun 16 $1 −$5 -334%
Will Number 7A by Pollock sell for $125M or more? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +553%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 on March 19? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +178%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 3? Jun 16 $0 $0 -110%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $2 −$1 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 1? Jun 16 $0 $0 -537%
Over $50M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Jun 16 $0 $0 +294%
Counter-Strike: Bad Luck vs Alzon - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Pelicans vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5 Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$3 -160%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 30, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Eastern Illinois Panthers vs. SIUE Cougars Jun 16 $0 $0 -214%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 3? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 142.5 Jun 16 $0 $0 -489%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs fnatic - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 8? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ma Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on March 6? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -114%
Will CA Paranaense vs. SC Corinthians Paulista end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Damac Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -581%
BNB Up or Down - April 2, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Meryl Streep attend the Met Gala? Jun 16 $0 $0 -95%
Will Quentin Fillon Maillet (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympi Jun 16 $0 $0 -118%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition - Game 4 Winne Jun 16 $2 −$1 -77%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Doug Burgum be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2 −$1 -54%
Avalanche vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will CD Tolima vs. Jaguares de Córdoba FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Osaka Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Norfolk State Spartans vs. Morgan State Bears (W) Jun 16 $0 $0 +162%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - EMEA Masters Pla Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on Marc Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on March 13? Jun 16 $0 $0 -136%
Badosa vs. Sasnovich: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Timothy Loubineaud (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2 Jun 16 $1 +$2 +223%
Carabobo FC vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $0 +$1 +318%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on March 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 16 $1 −$1 -212%
Will Stade Lavallois Mayenne FC vs. En Avant Guingamp end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -61%
Will CA Sarmiento vs. Racing Club end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on Fe Jun 16 $0 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 2m
Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 16m
Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 16m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 20m
Will KeyBank fail by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 21m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 27m
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu SELL No 78¢ $3 45m
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu SELL No 64¢ $1 45m
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu SELL No 71¢ $4 48m
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY No 64¢ $5 50m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 51m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 51m
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY No 64¢ $3 52m
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $1 1h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL No 59¢ $4 2h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY No 56¢ $4 2h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL No 53¢ $5 2h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY No 40¢ $4 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL No 36¢ $2 2h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $2 2h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY No 36¢ $2 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL No 43¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.00 · official $37.06 · 3500 history records