Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:33:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DB 0xdbb6…2fce other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$177 (+20%) realized +$180 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate92%12W / 1L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$284now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$162
30 days+$320
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$173
other 37% −$3
politics 3% $0
economics 3% $0
world 3% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 +31.2% +18.7% 100% 29% +67.4%
≤90d 8 +14.8% +3.8% 88% 25% +20.5%
all 13 +9.4% -1.0% 92% 15% +17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 15% +17.2%
10% -10.5% 15% +6.0%
15% -19.2% 15% -4.3%
20% -27.1% 15% -13.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$146 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$284
Realized+$180
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses12 / 1
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage168d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $287 $284 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $142 +$162 +114%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $155 +$157 +101%
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 20 May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition May 18 $13 $0 +0%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? May 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? May 18 $25 +$1 +2%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 17 $148 −$146 -99%
Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1? Feb 03 $11 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 03 $11 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 03 $12 $0 +1%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 03 $17 $0 +0%
Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition Jan 07 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $283.62 · official $283.62 (match) · 27 history records