Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:38:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DB 0xdbb5…73d5 crypto 724 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (189 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,916 (-116%) realized −$9,914 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%339W / 432L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day189.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$710
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (189 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 397 -17.0% -24.9% 45% 45% -24.1%
≤30d 771 -9.6% -18.2% 44% 44% -21.2%
≤90d 771 -9.6% -18.2% 44% 44% -21.2%
all 771 -9.6% -18.2% 44% 44% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover189.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 44% -21.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 44% -28.8%
15% -33.2% 43% -35.7%
20% -39.7% 37% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$9,914
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses339 / 432
Open positions1
Markets (closed)771 / 724
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day189.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 771 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Up 62¢ 52¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$33 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$14 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$7 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $0 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.81 · official $55.34 · 3500 history records