Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:45:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DB 0xdbb5…3d3a other 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 457d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%28W / 41L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$1
other 29% +$2
politics 12% +$1
culture 5% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
economics 3% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.0% -8.6% 43% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 12 -2.9% -12.1% 25% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 12 -2.9% -12.1% 25% 0% -9.2%
all 69 +2.7% -7.0% 41% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 3% -9.1%
10% -15.9% 1% -17.8%
15% -24.1% 1% -25.7%
20% -31.5% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.57 per $1 lost it wins $2.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

457d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses28 / 41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage457d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $39 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $9 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $43 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $45 +$2 +5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $3 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -40%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 24 $12 $0 -3%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 24 $1 +$2 +195%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Jul 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 24 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jul 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Jul 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 12 $11 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Jul 11 $1 $0 +17%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 10 $13 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 09 $2 $0 -3%
Will Ben Shelton win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 08 $8 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Jul 08 $5 $0 +4%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 08 $4 $0 +3%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 07 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 06 $12 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 06 $1 $0 -7%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $9 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 78¢ $9 3h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 7h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 8h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $4 29h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $21 31h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $25 31h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $17 37h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $17 39h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 45h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $40 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $21 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $19 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $41 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $41 5d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 6d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $41 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $42 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.89 · official $38.89 (match) · 209 history records