Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:06:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DB 0xdbb4…45d4 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$934 (+36%) realized +$939 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$565now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$117
7 days+$655
14 days+$920
30 days+$920
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$691
sports 6% +$225
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +10.5% -0.0% 62% 62% +22.3%
≤30d 10 +43.0% +29.4% 70% 70% +31.5%
≤90d 10 +43.0% +29.4% 70% 70% +31.5%
all 10 +43.0% +29.4% 70% 70% +31.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.4% 70% +31.5%
10% +17.0% 70% +18.9%
15% +5.7% 70% +7.4%
20% -4.7% 60% -3.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$176 vs −$103 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.97 per $1 lost it wins $3.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$565
Realized+$939
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions8
Markets (closed)10 / 18
History coverage9d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $150 $152 +$2 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $112 +$117 +105%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $284 +$200 +71%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $252 −$250 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,033 +$526 +51%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$40 +197%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $151 +$225 +149%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 40¢ $153 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $152 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $831 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 29¢ $50 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 48¢ $101 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $565.25 · official $565.25 (match) · 33 history records