Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:45:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DB
0xdbb4…4ea8
weather · 164 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$165 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$170 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$170
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses69 / 94
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)163 / 164
History coverage20d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day27.3
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 1 History 163 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$184
14 days+$229
30 days+$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 +$15 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$14 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $9 +$4 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $23 +$9 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 −$9 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $45 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 −$3 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $20 −$8 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$3 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 −$3 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $16 +$19 +118%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$29 +147%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $33 +$12 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$2 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $40 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $40 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$2 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$2 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$4 +492%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $48 +$27 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $24 +$15 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $40 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$50 +498%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $69 −$10 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$3 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $20 +$26 +135%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $27 −$11 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$3 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 −$1 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $30 −$4 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $35 +$5 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 93% +$229
crypto 3% −$58
sports 2% +$5
other 1% −$17
world 1% −$4
politics 0% +$6
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $1 43m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $0 43m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $54 44m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $18 44m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $16 47m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 71¢ $40 47m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? SELL No 93¢ $44 49m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? SELL No 54¢ $20 52m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 26¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 71¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 41¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 62¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 92¢ $12 9h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 92¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL Yes 92¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL Yes 93¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL Yes 90¢ $27 9h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 61¢ $9 11h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 63¢ $23 11h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 14h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 57¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 77¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 65¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11? SELL Yes 50¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +44.8% +31.0% 45% 34% +4.1%
≤30d 163 +26.7% +14.6% 42% 35% -2.0%
≤90d 163 +26.7% +14.6% 42% 35% -2.0%
all 163 +26.7% +14.6% 42% 35% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover27.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.6% 35% -2.0%
10% ← realistic here +3.6% 31% -11.4%
15% -6.4% 29% -19.9%
20% -15.6% 20% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.04 (match) · 585 history records