Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:46:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

DB 0xdbae…0f67 tech 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d

RISKYcopy with care tech specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$94 (+14%) realized +$76 · open +$18

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip

Net edge-5%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown63%max

Avg bet$113per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$388now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 39d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)-4.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-27.4%	-34.3%	50%	50%	-5.8%
≤30d	4	+5.5%	-4.6%	75%	75%	+9.4%
≤90d	4	+5.5%	-4.6%	75%	75%	+9.4%
all	4	+5.5%	-4.6%	75%	75%	+9.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.6%	75%	+9.4%
10%	-13.7%	75%	-1.0%
15%	-22.1%	50%	-10.6%
20%	-29.7%	0%	-19.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 44% · top 2 73% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +21% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$35 vs −$40 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage

Net worth$388

Realized+$76

Unrealized+$18

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage39d

Avg bet$113

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown63%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?	No	63¢	66¢	$270	$281	+$11 (+4%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	83¢	89¢	$100	$107	+$7 (+7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Jun 12	$101	+$46	+45%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Jun 12	$41	−$40	-98%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	Jun 01	$61	+$30	+49%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3	Jun 01	$101	+$28	+28%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?	BUY No	67¢	$152	1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	BUY Yes	37¢	$41	2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	BUY Yes	68¢	$101	2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?	BUY No	59¢	$122	12d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	BUY Yes	83¢	$101	13d
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	SELL No	97¢	$91	13d
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	BUY No	64¢	$61	38d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3	BUY Yes	77¢	$101	38d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $387.72 · official $387.72 (match) · 10 history records