Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:54:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdba7…ae61 tech 50 markets active 153d ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$39,046 (+12%) realized +$39,046 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate70%35W / 15L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$6,305per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$20,443
tech 37% +$18,240
sports 11% +$500
world 2% −$99
politics 1% −$53
weather 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 50 +0.6% -9.0% 70% 20% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 20% +1.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 12% -8.0%
15% -25.7% 6% -16.9%
20% -32.9% 4% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$7,848) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
18.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,492 vs −$878 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.96 per $1 lost it wins $3.96
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$39,046
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses35 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage122d
Avg bet$6,305
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jan 27 $4,999 −$77 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jan 27 $4,400 −$100 -2%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jan 27 $2,000 −$52 -3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jan 27 $6,000 +$34 +1%
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026? Jan 14 $3,000 −$17 -1%
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025? Jan 05 $3,000 +$11 +0%
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2025? Jan 05 $1,488 +$15 +1%
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2025? Jan 05 $2,105 +$52 +2%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 05 $7,660 +$37 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? Dec 30 $767 −$754 -98%
GPT ads by December 31? Dec 18 $10,805 +$213 +2%
Will Atlas introduce ads by December 31? Dec 18 $2,500 +$43 +2%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31? Dec 18 $5,000 +$83 +2%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15? Dec 16 $7,575 −$923 -12%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? Dec 11 $11,833 +$3,359 +28%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13? Dec 11 $14,838 +$3,260 +22%
Will Atlas have a Windows app live by December 31? Dec 10 $1,213 −$10 -1%
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO in 2025? Dec 10 $1,000 −$3 -0%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 9? Dec 10 $15,558 −$5,996 -38%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025? Dec 08 $10,000 +$43 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025? Dec 06 $70 −$70 -100%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 06 $5,161 −$5,159 -100%
OpenAI acquired in 2025? Dec 05 $2,000 −$8 -0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 04 $7,848 +$48 +1%
Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity in 2025? Dec 04 $500 −$1 -0%
AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2025? Dec 03 $2,965 +$17 +1%
Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model this year? Dec 03 $2,000 +$9 +0%
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? Dec 03 $400 +$25 +6%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 01 $7,940 +$153 +2%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? Nov 19 $40,752 +$10,085 +25%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? Nov 14 $32,276 +$8,456 +26%
Jazz vs. Celtics Nov 04 $600 +$41 +7%
Bucks vs. Pacers Nov 04 $200 +$30 +15%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $1,355 +$145 +11%
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 02 $5,100 +$120 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $31,350 +$285 +1%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Nov 01 $29,338 +$2,328 +8%
OpenAI browser by October 31? Oct 21 $11,018 +$18,320 +166%
OpenAI browser in 2025? Oct 20 $3,619 +$121 +3%
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 15? Oct 11 $47 +$37 +79%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on October 5 Oct 06 $1,275 +$12 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? Oct 05 $500 +$3 +0%
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 3? Oct 05 $2,875 +$185 +6%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10? Oct 03 $20 −$2 -8%
TikTok sale announced by September 30? Oct 01 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? Oct 01 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-30? Oct 01 $5 $0 +10%
OpenAI social app in 2025? Oct 01 $9,380 +$4,641 +50%
US government shutdown by October 1? Sep 29 $1 −$1 -100%
OpenAI browser by September 30? Sep 28 $902 +$4 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $4,922 153d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 86¢ $4,300 153d
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $1,948 153d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $6,034 153d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $1,500 153d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $4,500 160d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 88¢ $4,400 166d
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $539 166d
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $563 173d
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1,129 173d
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $134 179d
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $15 179d
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $2 179d
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $2 179d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $4,999 180d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $2,000 180d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $7,660 180d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? SELL Yes $13 180d
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $12 188d
GPT ads by December 31? SELL No 99¢ $2,536 193d
Will Atlas introduce ads by December 31? SELL No 99¢ $2,543 193d
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $10 195d
GPT ads by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $701 197d
GPT ads by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $198 197d
GPT ads by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $163 197d
GPT ads by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $123 198d
GPT ads by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $17 198d
GPT ads by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $10 198d
GPT ads by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $266 198d
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $1,488 198d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1151 history records