Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:39:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DB 0xdba4…a9fe other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-2%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%18W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$3
14 days+$37
30 days+$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$146
sports 25% +$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +8.1% -2.2% 60% 60% -8.6%
≤30d 8 +15.3% +4.3% 62% 62% +10.9%
≤90d 8 +15.3% +4.3% 62% 62% +10.9%
all 32 -3.1% -12.3% 56% 53% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 53% -9.8%
10% -20.7% 47% -18.4%
15% -28.4% 41% -26.3%
20% -35.4% 28% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$29 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses18 / 14
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 35
History coverage200d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $26 +$12 +47%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $26 −$5 -20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $67 −$67 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$13 +64%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$50 +50%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $38 −$38 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $66 +$72 +109%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $81 +$59 +73%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? Feb 16 $179 −$84 -47%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Feb 16 $43 −$33 -77%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Jan 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-23? Dec 24 $64 −$64 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-21? Dec 21 $34 +$30 +89%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-17? Dec 17 $36 +$17 +47%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-16? Dec 16 $34 +$2 +6%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2025-12-15? Dec 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-12-15? Dec 15 $14 +$7 +51%
Will Brentford FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-12-14? Dec 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $28 +$7 +25%
Will Lille OSC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $11 −$10 -93%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $32 +$29 +88%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $38 −$5 -14%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $31 +$7 +22%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-10? Dec 11 $29 +$38 +133%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-12-07? Dec 10 $40 −$31 -78%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-09? Dec 10 $25 +$4 +16%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $20 +$5 +25%
Real Madrid vs. Celta Vigo: Both Teams to Score Dec 08 $9 +$11 +117%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-12-06? Dec 07 $14 +$6 +45%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $19 +$15 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams BUY 26¢ $58 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $38 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $20 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Portugal win on 2026 BUY 42¢ $60 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $67 5d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $33 5d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $20 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 54¢ $35 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $100 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $28 8d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $138 8d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $66 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 11d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 11d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $140 22d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 57¢ $81 23d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 125d
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) SELL FC Barcelona 12¢ $10 125d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? BUY Yes 52¢ $52 125d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? SELL Yes 52¢ $52 125d
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) BUY FC Barcelona 50¢ $43 125d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? SELL Yes 72¢ $43 125d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? BUY Yes 73¢ $117 125d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? BUY Yes $3 165d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? BUY Yes $0 165d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? BUY Yes $1 165d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? BUY Yes $3 165d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-23? BUY Yes 62¢ $64 182d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $56.79 · 92 history records