Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:35:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DB 0xdba2…0b2a sports 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$50 (+10%) realized +$52 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +140% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +100% what you keep after slip
Net edge+100%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$293now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$51
other 49% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+117.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +140.0% +117.1% 80% 80% +38.8%
≤30d 5 +140.0% +117.1% 80% 80% +38.8%
≤90d 5 +140.0% +117.1% 80% 80% +38.8%
all 5 +140.0% +117.1% 80% 80% +38.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +117.1% 80% +38.8%
10% +96.4% 80% +25.6%
15% +77.4% 80% +13.4%
20% +60.0% 80% +2.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +140% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$61 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.46 per $1 lost it wins $2.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$293
Realized+$52
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)5 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Over 59¢ 58¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Over 33¢ 32¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$41 +199%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$37 +73%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $10 +$38 +388%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $25 +$34 +140%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $61 −$61 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $25 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $20 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 44¢ $51 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 11h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $25 11h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 11h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY 33¢ $20 11h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $50 14h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $11 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $292.54 · official $342.54 · 18 history records