Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:33:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DB 0xdba2…545f crypto 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$99 (+8%) realized +$99 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate54%19W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days+$106
14 days+$36
30 days−$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$88
crypto 28% −$144
world 27% +$133
politics 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +38.5% +25.3% 100% 75% +28.7%
≤30d 26 -15.6% -23.6% 50% 35% -22.0%
≤90d 30 -20.8% -28.3% 47% 33% -24.8%
all 35 +3.9% -6.0% 54% 40% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 40% -3.8%
10% -15.0% 34% -13.0%
15% -23.2% 29% -21.4%
20% -30.7% 23% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$21 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses19 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage166d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $80 +$5 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$20 +48%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 16 $30 +$8 +26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Jun 08 $92 −$46 -50%
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 S Jun 08 $20 −$4 -22%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 30 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 30 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 30 $10 −$2 -24%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 30 $50 −$8 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 27 $5 +$1 +20%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $54 −$44 -81%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $20 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 25 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? May 25 $10 +$4 +42%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 25 $23 −$13 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 24 $22 −$20 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 24 $104 −$50 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 24 $101 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 24 $62 −$52 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 +$17 +83%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $30 +$18 +59%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 29 $54 −$42 -78%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Apr 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 28 $46 +$111 +241%
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Feb 28 $20 +$1 +6%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $9 +$14 +152%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $20 +$57 +284%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $70 +$53 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $175 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 12h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 87¢ $86 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $80 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $60 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 28h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $38 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 9d
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $46 9d
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 S SELL Yes 58¢ $16 9d
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $92 17d
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 S BUY Yes 72¢ $20 17d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 61¢ $37 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $6 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 18d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 30¢ $8 18d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $42 18d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $6 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 21d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $18 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $11 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 23d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $14 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.65 · official $49.65 (match) · 127 history records