Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:36:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DB
0xdba2…3497
crypto · 317 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$14 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$103 · open −$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$559
Realized−$103
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses97 / 194
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions26
Markets (closed)291 / 317
History coverage20d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day93.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 26 History 291 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$18
14 days−$311
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 51¢ 50¢ $250 $242 −$9 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 77¢ 77¢ $61 $61 +$0 (+0%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 21¢ 38¢ $29 $53 +$24 (+81%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 35¢ 56¢ $15 $24 +$9 (+60%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 62¢ 44¢ $32 $22 −$10 (-30%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Virtus.pro 55¢ 75¢ $16 $22 +$6 (+35%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Yes 21¢ 30¢ $12 $17 +$5 (+45%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $25 $11 −$14 (-56%)
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 48¢ 33¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-32%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? No 9¢ 18¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+101%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Solana reach $90 in June? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 45¢ 36¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+34%)
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+22%)
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-36%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $5 $0 -9%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $10 $0 -1%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jun 14 $39 −$2 -5%
Will Solana dip to $30 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +44%
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $1B? Jun 14 $15 −$1 -10%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $180 end of June? Jun 14 $10 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2 Jun 14 $20 $0 -1%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? Jun 14 $25 −$1 -3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 14 $157 −$5 -3%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $94 +$12 +13%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 13 $40 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $210 in June? Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Will Solana reach $100 in June? Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 13 $20 −$1 -6%
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? Jun 13 $30 $0 -1%
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 13 $25 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $44 −$8 -18%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $15 −$6 -42%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $15 −$2 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 12 $28 +$10 +36%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +63%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $65 −$5 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $56 +$25 +44%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Will EUR/USD hit 1.24 (High) in 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 42% −$324
world 38% +$215
other 12% −$25
sports 3% +$24
economics 3% −$6
finance 2% +$6
politics 1% −$5
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 72¢ $5 7m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 49¢ $5 25m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 58¢ $5 26m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 58¢ $5 27m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 58¢ $5 28m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $5 39m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $5 40m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $5 40m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $5 41m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $5 41m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $5 42m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $5 42m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $5 43m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $5 44m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $5 44m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $5 45m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $5 45m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $5 46m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $5 47m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $5 47m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $4 48m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $5 48m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $5 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $5 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $4 50m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $4 50m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $5 55m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $5 55m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $5 56m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $5 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 -5.2% -14.2% 33% 19% -8.6%
≤30d 291 -8.3% -17.0% 33% 23% -11.2%
≤90d 291 -8.3% -17.0% 33% 23% -11.2%
all 291 -8.3% -17.0% 33% 23% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover93.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 23% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 17% -19.7%
15% -32.2% 15% -27.5%
20% -38.8% 11% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $559.07 · official $559.48 (match) · 2044 history records