Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:12:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdba1…a269 sports 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$17 (+5%) realized +$34 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$22
other 39% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -27.4% -34.3% 33% 33% -3.9%
≤30d 12 -27.4% -34.3% 33% 33% -3.9%
≤90d 12 -27.4% -34.3% 33% 33% -3.9%
all 12 -27.4% -34.3% 33% 33% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.3% 33% -3.9%
10% -40.6% 33% -13.1%
15% -46.4% 25% -21.5%
20% -51.6% 25% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -67% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$10 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$34
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 16
History coverage2d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 63¢ 48¢ $67 $50 −$17 (-25%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $36 −$32 -89%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$23 +90%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $47 +$32 +67%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$5 +23%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $18 −$1 -5%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$1 -4%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $39 +$35 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 5m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 57m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $48 3h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 26h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain $4 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 33¢ $16 28h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $5 28h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belg BUY 26¢ $15 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 37h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $16 37h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $27 44h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 45h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 46h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 51¢ $17 46h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 56¢ $19 46h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 46h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $18 46h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $20 46h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 46h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $36 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $20 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $75 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 52¢ $39 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.82 · official $69.82 (match) · 27 history records