Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:29:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdba1…d0e5 politics 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$24 (-2%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day105.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$22
other 17% −$12
world 16% −$1
tech 7% −$4
economics 5% −$1
culture 1% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (105 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -7.4% -16.2% 3% 3% -13.2%
≤30d 36 -7.4% -16.2% 3% 3% -13.2%
≤90d 36 -7.4% -16.2% 3% 3% -13.2%
all 36 -7.4% -16.2% 3% 3% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover105.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 3% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 3% -21.5%
15% -31.6% 3% -29.1%
20% -38.3% 0% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 35
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage2d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day105.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 20 $32 −$1 -5%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 20 $7 $0 -3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $16 $0 -3%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 20 $66 −$2 -3%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 20 $17 −$2 -9%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 20 $1 $0 -23%
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Jun 20 $106 −$2 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $92 $0 +0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 20 $72 −$3 -4%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 20 $49 −$5 -10%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 20 $32 $0 -2%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre Jun 20 $5 $0 -4%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 20 $50 −$2 -4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 20 $49 $0 -1%
Will no one dissent the July Fed decision? Jun 20 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 20 $20 $0 -2%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 20 $5 $0 -1%
Will one person dissent the July Fed decision? Jun 20 $15 $0 -3%
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 20 $0 $0 +0%
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Jun 20 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 20 $50 −$1 -3%
Will voter turnout be 56-60% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 20 $32 −$1 -3%
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? Jun 19 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 19 $30 −$1 -5%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $48 −$1 -3%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $7 −$1 -13%
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30? Jun 19 $1 $0 -20%
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? Jun 19 $10 −$5 -53%
Will Marcus Rashford join Aston Villa? Jun 19 $8 $0 -4%
Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership el Jun 19 $2 −$1 -71%
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? Jun 19 $9 $0 -2%
Will Scottie Scheffler finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $13 −$1 -8%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $21 −$3 -15%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? Jun 19 $12 −$1 -9%
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%? Jun 19 $1 $0 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL Yes 61¢ $3 52m
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL Yes 61¢ $27 1h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $7 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 1h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL No 64¢ $31 1h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 65¢ $32 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 16¢ $8 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 17¢ $8 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? SELL No 70¢ $8 2h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 70¢ $8 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 44¢ $22 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 19¢ $9 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 46¢ $3 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 23¢ $12 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 46¢ $20 2h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL No 66¢ $33 3h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 46¢ $12 3h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 67¢ $34 3h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 46¢ $12 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $33 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $8 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $36 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 171 history records