Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:48:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DB 0xdba1…8239 weather 216 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$764 (+9%) realized +$768 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate61%127W / 82L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$68
14 days+$54
30 days+$296
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 85% +$498
world 14% +$307
politics 1% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.2% -9.7% 48% 29% -1.7%
≤30d 121 +30.7% +18.2% 50% 31% -3.4%
≤90d 209 +41.9% +28.3% 61% 35% -1.4%
all 209 +41.9% +28.3% 61% 35% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.3% 35% -1.4%
10% +16.1% 24% -10.8%
15% +4.8% 18% -19.4%
20% -5.4% 14% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$8 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$217
Realized+$768
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses127 / 82
Open positions7
Markets (closed)209 / 216
History coverage71d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? No 84¢ 80¢ $159 $152 −$7 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 77¢ 100¢ $42 $55 +$13 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 17? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? No 80¢ 8¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-90%)
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+35%)
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-82%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 17? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $3 +$25 +809%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 17 $35 +$5 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $19 +$9 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $258 +$42 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $134 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $16 −$7 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $50 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $192 +$15 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $50 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 10 $313 +$41 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$2 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 09 $27 +$3 +11%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 09 $20 +$25 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 09 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 8? Jun 08 $12 +$4 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 7? Jun 08 $216 +$11 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $19 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 7? Jun 07 $117 −$117 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 07 $54 +$61 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 6? Jun 07 $213 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 6? Jun 06 $13 −$12 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 +$7 +294%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- BUY No 84¢ $159 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 90¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 76¢ $31 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $11 5h
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-Ju BUY Yes 13¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 96¢ $18 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 95¢ $18 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $32 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? SELL No 50¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? SELL No 51¢ $8 29h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 40¢ $11 29h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 29h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 54¢ $7 29h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 33h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 33h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 34h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 34h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 35h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 35h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $35 36h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 95¢ $19 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.67 · official $216.67 (match) · 869 history records