Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:50:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DB 0xdb9f…806b world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% +$9
other 16% −$1
politics 4% $0
sports 2% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 11 +1.9% -7.8% 55% 9% -7.7%
≤90d 13 +1.6% -8.1% 46% 8% -8.0%
all 29 +0.7% -8.9% 48% 7% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 7% -8.3%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.1%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.1%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.36 per $1 lost it wins $3.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage459d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $41 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $23 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $49 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $55 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $50 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $51 +$6 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $38 +$3 +8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $48 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $48 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $5 $0 -4%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $7 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 12 $6 $0 -5%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? Apr 24 $3 −$1 -20%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 23 $4 $0 -2%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Colombia in the first 100 days? Apr 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Na Kyung-won be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 18 $11 $0 -1%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Giants make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $14 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 27 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 65°F or higher on March 16? Mar 18 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $43 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $5 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $51 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 9h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 17h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 19h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $42 22d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $41 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $16 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $18 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $40 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $13 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $26 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $28 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $21 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $49 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $31 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $17 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $6 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $55 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $49 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $50 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $57 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.88 · official $2.88 (match) · 74 history records