Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:16:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DB 0xdb9e…fe9d sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$295 (+47%) realized +$276 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$251
sports 46% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +46.3% +32.3% 67% 67% +42.1%
≤30d 9 +46.3% +32.3% 67% 67% +42.1%
≤90d 9 +46.3% +32.3% 67% 67% +42.1%
all 9 +46.3% +32.3% 67% 67% +42.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.3% 67% +42.1%
10% +19.7% 67% +28.5%
15% +8.1% 56% +16.1%
20% -2.5% 56% +4.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +57% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$21 · ×2.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.51 per $1 lost it wins $5.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized+$276
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 27¢ 100¢ $36 $133 +$97 (+270%)
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 27¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Over 37¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $36 +$74 +206%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $46 +$88 +192%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 17 $102 +$85 +83%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $10 −$4 -38%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $30 +$23 +75%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $52 +$37 +71%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $169 +$46 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $37 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 10¢ $5 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 36¢ $36 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $36 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $10 7h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $39 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $36 15h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 54¢ $102 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 10¢ $4 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 14¢ $2 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $31 23h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 84¢ $53 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $10 25h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $89 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $52 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 32¢ $31 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $65 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.34 · official $133.39 (match) · 24 history records