Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:31:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DB 0xdb9c…fdeb crypto 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$274 (-11%) realized −$274 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$514
crypto 35% −$170
other 17% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -22.2% -29.6% 46% 42% -32.7%
≤30d 25 -22.0% -29.5% 44% 40% -32.6%
≤90d 25 -22.0% -29.5% 44% 40% -32.6%
all 25 -22.0% -29.5% 44% 40% -32.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 40% -32.6%
10% -36.2% 36% -39.1%
15% -42.4% 36% -44.9%
20% -48.0% 20% -50.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$73 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$274
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage16d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12PM ET Jun 27 $236 −$225 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $80 −$75 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11AM ET Jun 27 $77 +$39 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10AM ET Jun 27 $79 +$37 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9AM ET Jun 27 $251 +$103 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$8 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 27 $29 −$22 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$13 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 27 $13 −$10 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 27 $12 +$5 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 27 $13 +$9 +70%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $286 −$32 -11%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $768 −$407 -53%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $60 +$41 +68%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $237 +$91 +38%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $61 +$39 +64%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 26 $124 −$94 -76%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 −$4 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $236 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $80 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $116 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $77 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $115 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $79 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $354 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $199 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $52 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $29 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $13 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $13 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $13 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $16 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $12 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $22 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $13 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records