trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +42.4% | +28.8% | 50% | 50% | +2.5% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +42.4% | +28.8% | 50% | 50% | +2.5% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +42.4% | +28.8% | 50% | 50% | +2.5% |
| all | 26 | -4.6% | -13.6% | 42% | 38% | +1.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.6% | 38% | +1.7% |
| 10% | -21.9% | 38% | -8.0% |
| 15% | -29.5% | 35% | -16.9% |
| 20% | -36.4% | 23% | -25.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? | Yes | 46¢ | 46¢ | $100 | $99 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advance | Senegal | 40¢ | 40¢ | $60 | $59 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01? | Yes | 28¢ | 26¢ | $60 | $57 | −$3 (-5%) |
| Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance | Morocco | 45¢ | 50¢ | $50 | $56 | +$6 (+12%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? | Jun 30 | $51 | −$2 | -4% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? | Jun 30 | $61 | −$9 | -15% |
| Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance | Jun 29 | $10 | +$11 | +105% |
| Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | Jun 29 | $30 | +$16 | +52% |
| Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Jun 29 | $41 | +$64 | +156% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | Jun 29 | $101 | −$40 | -39% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: November | Nov 28 | $1,001 | +$497 | +50% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Nov 24 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Biden finish his term? | Jan 03 | $900 | +$75 | +8% |
| Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-11-23? | Dec 31 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Nov 16 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Jake Paul knockout Mike Tyson? | Nov 16 | $150 | +$61 | +41% |
| Ethereum ETF begins trading by July 4? | Nov 16 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 16 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Fake News" during the debate? | Nov 16 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Austria win the 2024 Euros? | Nov 16 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec | Nov 16 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the debate? | Nov 16 | $430 | −$430 | -100% |
| Will Switzerland win the 2024 Euros? | Nov 16 | $54 | −$54 | -100% |
| Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Jul 21 | $300 | +$551 | +184% |
| Will Turkey win the 2024 Euros? | Jul 19 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Spain win the 2024 Euros? | Jul 19 | $10 | +$40 | +400% |
| Will Trump say "Hunter" during the debate? | Jun 28 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Jail" or "Prison" during the debate? | Jun 28 | $100 | +$43 | +44% |
| Will Trump say "Felon" during the debate? | Jun 28 | $100 | +$68 | +68% |
| Will Trump say "Putin" during the debate? | Jun 28 | $125 | +$42 | +33% |