Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:31:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DB 0xdb93…7838 world 17 markets active 14h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$156 (+1%) realized +$156 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%16W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,601per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,660now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$13
14 days+$17
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$40
economics 12% +$20
crypto 6% +$13
politics 6% +$8
sports 6% +$6
other 5% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 16 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 16 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 0% -9.0%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$1,660
Realized+$156
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses16 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage95d
Avg bet$1,601
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,660 $1,660 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,658 +$2 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $1,646 +$12 +1%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $1,643 +$3 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,629 +$13 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $1,623 +$7 +0%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $1,622 +$2 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $1,603 +$11 +1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $1,594 +$8 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $1,592 +$3 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $1,584 +$8 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 25 $1,578 +$6 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 21 $1,576 +$2 +0%
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $1,575 +$2 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 13 $1,573 +$2 +0%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $1,565 +$8 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 06 $1,496 +$69 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,660 13h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,658 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $1,646 9d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,643 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,629 18d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $1,623 27d
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 100¢ $1,622 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY No 99¢ $737 40d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY No 99¢ $636 40d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY No 99¢ $1 40d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY No 99¢ $21 40d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY No 99¢ $209 40d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,594 49d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,592 51d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $1,584 56d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,578 59d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $235 63d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 63d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $70 63d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,261 63d
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,575 66d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,573 71d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,565 74d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY No 96¢ $1,496 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,659.66 · official $1,659.66 (match) · 40 history records