Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:19:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DB 0xdb90…1917 crypto 681 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,108 (-13%) realized −$7,199 · open +$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%338W / 628L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day40.9pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$566now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 78d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$1,848
sports 6% +$167
other 0% +$15
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-40.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 323 -89.5% -90.5% 5% 4% -91.4%
≤30d 550 -55.4% -59.6% 24% 22% -66.5%
≤90d 966 -34.1% -40.4% 35% 32% -40.0%
all 966 -34.1% -40.4% 35% 32% -40.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.4% 32% -40.0%
10% ← realistic here -46.1% 30% -45.7%
15% -51.3% 28% -51.0%
20% -56.1% 25% -55.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$72 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$566
Realized−$7,199
Unrealized+$91
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses338 / 628
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions7
Markets (closed)966 / 681
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$77
Trades / day40.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 966 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11PM ET Up 21¢ 50¢ $64 $152 +$88 (+137%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $123 $124 +$1 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $101 $101 +$0 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Up 49¢ 50¢ $49 $50 +$2 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Up 49¢ 50¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 493 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $118 −$118 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $99 −$99 -100%
Spread: Steelers (-5.5) Jun 22 $217 −$217 -100%
UFC 324: Perez vs. Johnson (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 22 $189 −$189 -100%
BLAST Bounty: Liquid vs. FURIA Jun 22 $210 −$210 -100%
Spread: Texas State (-18.5) Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 30, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $39 −$46 -119%
Steelers vs. Jets Jun 22 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $79 −$79 -100%
UFC: Hokit vs. Uriel Jun 22 $97 −$97 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? Jun 22 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$23 -85%
XRP Up or Down - January 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Dyer vs. Foro Jun 22 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $46 −$46 -100%
High Point Panthers vs. Wisconsin Badgers Jun 22 $166 −$166 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Sam Houston vs. Hawai'i Jun 22 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $54 −$54 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Canucks Jun 22 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $97 −$90 -93%
Capitals vs. Oilers Jun 22 $198 −$198 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $148 −$148 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $236 −$236 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $208 −$208 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Dalby vs. Izagakhmaev (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $183 −$183 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $43 −$43 -100%
Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-7.5) Jun 22 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $49 −$49 -100%
UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $97 −$97 -100%
Tigers vs. Guardians Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 30, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $50 −$57 -114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $35 −$15 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $50 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $53 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $51 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $114 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $103 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $54 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $565.63 · official $565.63 (match) · 3500 history records