Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:26:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb90…1d96 crypto 132 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$45 (-9%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%66W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +19.6% +8.2% 75% 75% +12.1%
≤30d 12 -20.2% -27.8% 50% 50% -23.5%
≤90d 131 -14.7% -22.8% 50% 50% -17.7%
all 131 -14.7% -22.8% 50% 50% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 50% -17.7%
10% -30.2% 50% -25.6%
15% -37.0% 44% -32.8%
20% -43.1% 33% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses66 / 65
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage62d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 52¢ 48¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$4 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 27 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 27 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 27 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 14 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 14 $4 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 14 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 14 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 14 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 14 $4 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 14 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 12 $4 +$4 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 12 $4 +$3 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 12 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 12 $8 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 12 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 11 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 11 $4 +$3 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 11 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 11 $0 $0 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 11 $4 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 11 $4 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 11 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 11 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 11 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 11 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 11 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 11 $4 +$2 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.42 · official $2.52 (match) · 230 history records