Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:37:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DB 0xdb8e…31f7 crypto 1379 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 167d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,148 (-2%) realized −$1,219 · open +$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate69%946W / 421L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,352now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$26
14 days−$17
30 days+$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$2,094
world 12% +$476
other 4% +$253
tech 2% +$18
economics 1% +$28
politics 1% −$34
finance 1% +$8
weather 0% +$28
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +17.6% +6.4% 73% 55% -11.9%
≤30d 47 -8.4% -17.1% 70% 26% -6.9%
≤90d 74 +12.1% +1.4% 66% 31% -3.9%
all 1367 -1.7% -11.1% 69% 24% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 24% -11.7%
10% -19.6% 24% -20.2%
15% -27.4% 23% -27.9%
20% -34.5% 23% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$29 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$1,352
Realized−$1,219
Unrealized+$71
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses946 / 421
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1367 / 1379
History coverage168d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1367 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $940 $996 +$56 (+6%)
Will Iraq concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $191 $190 −$1 (-0%)
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? No 73¢ 70¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-3%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 45¢ 68¢ $22 $34 +$12 (+51%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $16 $23 +$7 (+43%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 19¢ $9 $19 +$10 (+102%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 29¢ 36¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $16 $11 −$5 (-28%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $11 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $8 $6 −$3 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $200 −$54 -27%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 27 $80 +$20 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +76%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $10 +$12 +118%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $496 +$4 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 21 $179 −$9 -5%
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 20 $288 −$3 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $30 +$2 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 16 $291 +$8 +3%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $87 +$3 +3%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $292 +$8 +3%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $69 +$31 +45%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $4 +$1 +34%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in June? Jun 03 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 02 $26 +$14 +53%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Lexi Howard die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Ethan Daley die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $300 +$9 +3%
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $283 +$17 +6%
Will Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $501 +$19 +4%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $330 +$20 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 30? May 30 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 30? May 30 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 30? May 29 $3 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 30? May 29 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 30? May 29 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 30? May 29 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 30? May 29 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 30? May 29 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on May 30? May 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 30? May 29 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 30? May 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 29 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 29 $1 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on May 27? May 27 $1 $0 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on May 28? May 27 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $101 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $146 39m
Will Iraq concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag BUY Yes 95¢ $191 1h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $200 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY No 45¢ $23 35h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 79¢ $80 2d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? BUY No 73¢ $15 4d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? BUY No 73¢ $6 4d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? BUY No 73¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $23 6d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $10 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $109 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $387 6d
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 85¢ $15 6d
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 85¢ $2 6d
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 85¢ $18 6d
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 85¢ $122 6d
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 85¢ $9 6d
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 85¢ $4 6d
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 95¢ $133 7d
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 95¢ $60 7d
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 95¢ $16 7d
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 95¢ $76 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 10d
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $288 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,352.39 · official $1,352.39 (match) · 3500 history records