Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:17:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DB 0xdb8d…5a52 crypto 23 markets active 487d ago coverage 83d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 83d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$617,623 (+243%) realized +$617,623 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate19%5W / 22L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11,065per market
Trades / day41.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 83d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$90,166
economics 35% −$29,023
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 27 +25.9% +13.9% 19% 7% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.9% 7% -10.9%
10% +3.0% 4% -19.5%
15% ← realistic here -6.9% 4% -27.2%
20% -16.1% 4% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -142% too few recent
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$10,751) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +105% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
117.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22,037 vs −$6,760 · ×3.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$617,623
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses5 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 23
History coverage83d ⚠
Avg bet$11,065
Trades / day41.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum above $3,500 on December 6? Jun 28 $0 −$104 -57080%
Will Ethereum reach $3,750 in November? Jun 28 $2 −$1,041 -55332%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 28 $17 −$423 -2469%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 28 $70,095 −$98,112 -140%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by February 28, 2025? Nov 21 $5,567 −$4,646 -84%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in December? Nov 21 $1,216 +$182 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025? Nov 21 $15,355 −$1,579 -10%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Feb 26 $7,339 −$6,692 -91%
Bitcoin above $105,000 on February 7? Feb 03 $6,452 −$890 -14%
Bitcoin above $105,000 on January 31? Jan 31 $27,866 −$454 -2%
Bitcoin above $103,000 on January 24? Jan 23 $22,920 −$379 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by January 31, 2025? Jan 21 $2,062 −$1,235 -60%
Ethereum above $3,300 on January 17? Jan 16 $2,710 −$276 -10%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on December 27? Dec 26 $4,486 −$179 -4%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? Dec 22 $1,357 −$283 -21%
Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 20? Dec 20 $13,725 +$920 +7%
Solana above $225 on December 20? Dec 19 $6,447 −$742 -12%
Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024? Dec 19 $25,789 −$73 -0%
Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024? Dec 19 $62,538 −$28,950 -46%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in December? Dec 16 $10,751 +$562 +5%
Ethereum above $4,000 on December 13? Dec 14 $3,315 −$384 -12%
Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 13? Dec 14 $10,450 −$329 -3%
Solana above $240 on December 13? Dec 13 $4,620 −$1,568 -34%
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by Sunday? Dec 06 $4,135 +$34 +1%
Bitcoin above $98,000 on December 6? Dec 06 $5,074 −$351 -7%
Solana above $245 on December 6? Dec 06 $4,361 −$33 -1%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Dec 05 $5,968 +$108,488 +1818%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? SELL Yes 3¢ $340 486d
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? SELL Yes 3¢ $307 486d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by February 28, 2025? SELL Yes 2¢ $30 488d
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? BUY Yes 31¢ $3,079 488d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by February 28, 2025? SELL Yes 2¢ $70 488d
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? BUY Yes 39¢ $4,259 488d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by February 28, 2025? SELL Yes 8¢ $120 491d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by February 28, 2025? SELL Yes 7¢ $701 491d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by February 28, 2025? BUY Yes 18¢ $540 499d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by February 28, 2025? BUY Yes 29¢ $1,157 504d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by February 28, 2025? BUY Yes 27¢ $160 505d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by February 28, 2025? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 505d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by February 28, 2025? BUY Yes 27¢ $27 505d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by February 28, 2025? BUY Yes 27¢ $81 505d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by February 28, 2025? BUY Yes 27¢ $68 505d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by February 28, 2025? BUY Yes 27¢ $189 506d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by February 28, 2025? BUY Yes 29¢ $290 506d
Bitcoin above $105,000 on February 7? SELL Yes 31¢ $830 509d
Bitcoin above $105,000 on February 7? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 509d
Bitcoin above $105,000 on February 7? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 509d
Bitcoin above $105,000 on February 7? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 509d
Bitcoin above $105,000 on February 7? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 509d
Bitcoin above $105,000 on February 7? SELL Yes 31¢ $713 509d
Bitcoin above $105,000 on February 7? SELL Yes 23¢ $1,380 509d
Bitcoin above $105,000 on February 7? SELL Yes 25¢ $742 509d
Bitcoin above $105,000 on February 7? SELL Yes 23¢ $690 509d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by February 28, 2025? BUY Yes 38¢ $81 509d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by February 28, 2025? BUY Yes 38¢ $2,959 509d
Bitcoin above $105,000 on February 7? SELL Yes 15¢ $1,200 509d
Bitcoin above $105,000 on February 7? BUY Yes 13¢ $520 509d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.52 · official $3.52 (match) · 3500 history records