Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:24:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DB 0xdb8d…84c1 crypto 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 619d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,500 (-12%) realized −$2,499 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%19W / 1L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$940per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,548now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$14
politics 49% −$2,489
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 20 -1.0% -10.4% 95% 0% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -21.3%
10% -19.0% 0% -28.8%
15% -26.8% 0% -35.7%
20% -34.0% 0% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,170) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2,490 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

619d coverage
Net worth$2,548
Realized−$2,499
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses19 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)20 / 23
History coverage619d
Avg bet$940
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,300 $1,299 −$1 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $999 $998 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $250 $250 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,590 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? Jun 19 $958 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $591 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,470 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? Jun 18 $479 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,365 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,170 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? May 30 $6 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high in April? May 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in April? May 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April? May 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April? May 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in April? May 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? May 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 30 $21 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? May 30 $80 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April? May 30 $115 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 by March 31? Apr 01 $553 +$1 +0%
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Feb 04 $554 +$1 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $10,021 −$2,490 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $250 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1,300 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1,590 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $958 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $479 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,470 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $591 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,170 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1,365 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April? BUY No 100¢ $115 431d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? BUY No 100¢ $80 431d
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? BUY No 99¢ $21 431d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $20 431d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $20 431d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $20 431d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $20 431d
Will Solana reach $300 in April? BUY No 100¢ $6 431d
Dogecoin all time high in April? BUY No 100¢ $6 431d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $6 431d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $553 457d
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? BUY Yes 100¢ $309 515d
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 515d
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? BUY Yes 100¢ $131 515d
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? BUY Yes 100¢ $98 515d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 601d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 34¢ $6 601d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 34¢ $5 601d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 34¢ $61 601d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 34¢ $5 601d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,547.72 · official $2,547.22 (match) · 99 history records