Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:12:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb88…8c2a sports 350 markets active 2h ago coverage 656d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$101 (-0%) realized −$101 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%21W / 328L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$10
14 days−$28
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$55
other 28% −$25
politics 26% −$15
crypto 4% −$8
world 3% −$3
economics 3% −$2
tech 2% −$4
culture 2% −$3
finance 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.9% -10.3% 5% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 79 -2.4% -11.7% 5% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 93 -2.3% -11.6% 4% 0% -10.8%
all 349 -0.7% -10.1% 6% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

656d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses21 / 328
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)349 / 350
History coverage656d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 349 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 22 $31 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $154 $0 -0%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $24 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 21 $75 −$2 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $75 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 19 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 19 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $83 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $25 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $176 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $27 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 17 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $38 $0 -1%
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $39 −$1 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $99 −$1 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 16 $122 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $422 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $253 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 13 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $66 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 13 $92 −$1 -2%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $49 −$2 -3%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $38 −$2 -6%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $38 −$1 -3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $222 −$1 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $47 −$2 -4%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $53 $0 -1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $74 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $108 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $56 −$1 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 08 $46 −$1 -2%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $106 $0 -0%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $33 −$1 -3%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $186 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $11 $0 -0%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5) Jun 05 $44 −$44 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 1h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $29 2h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $29 7h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $31 7h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $31 12h
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $31 13h
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $31 19h
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $23 19h
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $24 27h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 95¢ $35 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 95¢ $35 34h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $32 34h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $32 42h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $32 43h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $32 2d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $27 2d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $27 2d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $36 2d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $36 2d
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 95¢ $32 2d
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 96¢ $32 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $32 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $32 3d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $36 3d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $36 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $26 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $25 3d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $38 3d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $38 3d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $27 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.13 · official $29.13 (match) · 1396 history records